Despite government claims, coronavirus cases are growing fastest in India among the worst affected countries, and improvements in India have plateaued

Most discussions on India’s Covid-19 outbreak centre on the high number of cases, now third in the world after the United States and Brazil. The messaging from the government has been that things are getting better. However, a broader look at the month’s data shows that cases are growing fastest in India among the worst affected countries, and improvements in India have plateaued.

Not only that, but India is gradually inching towards registering the highest number of daily new cases. Since last week, it has consistently added over 40,000 new cases every day, and on Monday, July 27, it was just 5,000 cases away from reporting the highest daily rise in cases in the world. India reported nearly 50,000 new cases, just behind the US, which added a little less than 55,000 cases on the day. Incidentally, Brazil at the third spot added less than half the number of cases as India.

Despite having the world’s third-highest caseload, India’s cases are growing faster among the 10 worst-affected countries. In fact, India has one of the world’s highest growth rates in cases; just 18 countries out of nearly 200 are growing faster, but all of them (except Argentina with 1.5 lakh cases) have only a few hundred or few thousand cases. In the worst-affected US, cases are doubling in 40 days, while in Brazil, they are taking 36 days. In India, cases are doubling in 19 days.

The seven-day rolling average of India’s daily additions is also sloping upwards and competes with that of Brazil and the US. According to ‘Our World in Data’, as of July 26, India’s average daily additions were around 44,000; the same was 45,600 for Brazil. The US tops the chart with daily additions averaging 66,600.

Epidemiologist Giridhar R Babu believes this increase in cases should not worry us as increased detection helps in early isolation. “Starting with just a few labs, India has come a really long way in detecting these many cases by expanding testing throughout the country. However, there is still scope for more testing, especially in areas with low case detection. We should not worry about the absolute number of cases, as increased detection helps in saving more lives by early isolation and timely management,” said the professor and head of lifecourse epidemiology at Public Health Foundation of India.