The west coast is seeing a return of cyclone-related devastation after four decades. Why we should worry

The 1976 Arabian Sea cyclone made landfall in Saurashtra on June 3. The coast was lashed by wind of up to 175 kmph, damaging 51 villages killing 70 persons and causing damage worth Rs 3 crore. That was the last major cyclone in over four decades. Since then, cyclones have returned to India’s west coast with a vengeance. Since 2019, India has recorded eight cyclones, five in the Arabian sea alone.

Cyclone Tauktae, which made landfall in Goa on May 13, in Maharashtra on May 15 and in Gujarat on May 17, has devastated these three coastal states. It is the third consecutive cyclone after Vayu in 2019 and Nisarga in 2020, and the most severe one the Arabian sea has recorded since 1902. At least 59 people lost their lives so far and around 50 are missing. Five lakh people have suffered financial losses in terms of damages to their houses and farm lands. An estimate of the losses is still being done, but it could run into hundreds of crores.

Cyclones have traditionally been a phenomenon reserved for the Bay of Bengal because of the low air pressure. The most devastating one in history, Bhola in 1970, killed over five lakh people in erstwhile East Pakistan and West Bengal. The most recent one, Nargis, which hit Myanmar in 2008, was the fifth deadliest cyclone in history.

Researchers at the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) say that the Arabian Sea, previously known as cyclone shy, is changing its nature because of the rising greenhouse gas emissions and warming water. The IITM has been analysing the west coast cyclone landfall data available since 1891.

Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist with the IITM, says the Arabian Sea has registered the fastest warming rate among the tropical oceans. Its surface temperature has increased by 1.2-1.4 degrees Celsius between 1982 and 2018. Koll warns that there is a need for long-term vision to deal with the climate change. “We can’t wait for these forecasts to evacuate people every year. We can’t evacuate ecosystems, infrastructure, houses and cars. The Arabian Sea will continue to warm in the future, churning off more cyclones and floods along the west coast,” wrote Koll on Twitter.

Vineet Kumar Singh, another researcher at IITM, points out that it is for the first time after 1976 and only the second time since 1900 that a cyclone, which formed in May—pre-monsoon period—has hit the Gujarat coast with a wind speed greater than 65 kmph.

Tauktae led to one of the worst power outages in Goa—70 per cent of the state has been without power since May 17. Bardez, Siolim, Saligao and Porvorim are the worst-affected areas. It has affected the supply of water, food and medicines too. In many places, the housing societies have either asked their members to use water judiciously or staggered the released of water. While Goa has not reported any deaths due to the cyclone, properties worth Rs 1.15 crore have been damaged.

Loss in Maharashtra

Close to 2.20 lakh people in Maharashtra have been affected. While 16 people died in cyclone-related incidents, 30 have been injured. The crops and horticulture on 8,830 hectares of farm land in 3,571 locations have been destroyed. Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri and Raigad have been the worst-affected districts. These districts were yet to fully recover from the cyclone Nisarga, which had flattened countless palms of coconut and betel nut and damaged three lakh houses on June 5, 2020.

This time, Tauktae has devastated mango crops in the last leg of the season. The mango producers have calculated their losses to being close to Rs 100 crore. The Alphonso growers had already suffered a loss as the season was delayed. “Normally, the last leg of the season is the time when the mango growers start earning profits. The cyclone has caused losses of around Rs 100 crore,” says Sanjay Pansare, director of Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee, Navi Mumbai. Tukaram Ghavali, president of Ratnagiri Amba Utpadak Sahakari Sanstha, a mango growers association, says mango trees have been uprooted in many places. The unpicked mango is completely destroyed. “The loss will have a bearing on the next year’s season too,” he says.