With third Covid wave fear looming, Centre cautions states as crowds return after easing of curbs The Centre on Saturday asked the states and Union Territories to open up activities in a “carefully calibrated” manner.
With third Covid wave fear looming, Centre cautions states as crowds return after easing of curbs
Crowded Sadar market that reopened after further ease in Covid-induced lockdown restrictions in Delhi on June 19.
With the easing of Covid-19 restrictions leading to the resumption of crowding in markets, the Centre on Saturday directed the states and Union Territories to open up activities in a “carefully calibrated” manner. It also urged them to ensure the “extremely important” five-fold strategy of Covid-appropriate behaviour, test-track-treat and vaccination to prevent the spread of the disease.
This comes after AIIMS director Randeep Guleria warned that India could see a third wave of coronavirus in six to eight weeks if Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed and crowding is not prevented.
In a communication to all states and UTs, Union Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla also asked them to scale up the vaccination pace, to cover the maximum number of people in an expeditious manner, as inoculation, in the present scenario, is critical to breaking the chain of transmission.
People wait in queue for bus in Mumbai as Covid-19 restrictions eased.
In an interview with Rajdeep Sardesai, Dr. Rahul Pandit, Member, Maharashtra Covid Task Force, said there is no alert for a third wave in the state in 2-4 weeks but we need to be prepared if it comes earlier than expected. Excerpts:
Q: Are you scaring people and telling them to stay at home by saying a third Covid wave could hit the state in 2 to 4 weeks? Or is this based on hard evidence? Are you being alarmist? Or is this a wake-up call?
I don’t think we’re being alarmist. Nor are we trying to scare people. Let me put this in the right perspective. The discussion was about the preparation for the third wave. The mathematical model predicts a 100-120 day time gap between two waves. But models are models, we need to look at real-life scenarios.
Countries like the US have had 14 to 15 weeks of gap between two waves. But the UK had a gap of less than eight weeks. We need to be prepared because we have the delta variant. At no point did we say the third wave will come in two weeks or four weeks. It’s very difficult to guess.
We have to go by some mathematical models and then look around the world and see what other waves have been like. And that’s how. The whole discussion was – let’s be prepared even if it comes a little early. We should not be caught off guard. Nothing beyond that.
Q: Markets, restraints in Mumbai are getting crowded and people are lowering their guard. Is that a warning?
There was no timeframe for the third wave. But we need to keep enforcing Covid-appropriate behaviour. I’m not saying that the economy should not open up. But people stepping out should double-mask themselves.
Jathedar Sardar Tara Singh Grewal, a farmer of village Rurka in district Mohali, Punjab, harvesting his wheat fields during the Covid lockdown
In the current procurement season (2021-22), Punjab purchased132.08 lakh tonnes of wheat from farmers while MP procured 128.16 lakh tonnes. In 2020-21, MP had procured 129 lakh tonnes of wheat while Punjab procured 127.6 lakh tonnes.
Even as Punjab reclaimed the top spot, MP has entered the club of biggest wheat procurers and would be looking to stay there. Moreover, if the present procurement policy continues, it is only a matter of a few years before MP permanently becomes the top procurer of wheat in the country. Here’s why:
At 3.92 lakh tonnes, the gap between Punjab and MP in wheat procurement in 2021-22 was small. While MP nearly reached its 2020-21 levels in procurement, Punjab claimed the top spot by increasing procurement by around 4.48 lakh tonnes.
Both figures, in percentage terms, are small and can be breached. More importantly, MP has way more excess wheat to sell compared to Punjab. Production of wheat in MP is estimated to be around 300 lakh tonnes a year while in Punjab, it is expected to be around 175 lakh tonnes. Of these, in MP, 128 lakh tonnes or 42 per cent of the production is sold to the government. The remaining is sold to private traders in mandis or is kept by farmers for seed purposes and consumption. In Punjab, 132 lakh tonnes of the estimated 175 lakh tonnes, or 75 per cent, of wheat is sold to the government. Perhaps this was also the reason for the anti-farm laws protests being shrill in Punjab compared to other states.
Productivity in MP is far less than in Punjab, suggesting scope for immense growth in production. In Punjab, wheat is cultivated over 35 lakh hectares while in MP, it is sown over 97 lakh hectares. The productivity in Punjab stands at 49 quintals per hectare while in MP it is 35 quintals per hectare. In other states, such as Uttar Pradesh, where wheat production is usually about 320 lakh tonnes a year, government procurement in 2021-22 is likely to be around 55 lakh tonnes.
“The pandemic (second wave) led to the closure of mandis in mid-April and more arrivals to the government centres. If the mandis had closed down earlier, MP would have procured more wheat than last year,” says Tarun Pithode, director, food and civil supplies, MP.
Compared to 2020, when 20.9 lakh tonnes of wheat were sold to private traders through mandis in April and May, the total trade through private traders in 2021 fell to 7.6 lakh tonnes in the same months.
The arrival of wheat for sale to the government would depend on the MSP (minimum support price) offered. Last year, the Union government announced a hike of Rs 50 per quintal in MSP of wheat (to Rs 1,975 per quintal), the smallest hike in many years. If the government plans to disincentivise wheat production, the small hikes in MSP are an indicator. But if it doesn’t, MP will emerge as the top contributor to India on a regular basis.
